The Central Bank is scheduled to announce its next monetary policy decision on the 30th, with financial research firm First Capital forecasting that interest rates will remain unchanged.
According to a pre-analysis released by the firm, there is a 60% probability that the Central Bank will maintain its Overnight Policy Rate at 8.75%.
The analysis also indicates a 40% probability of a 50-basis-point increase in the interest rate.
First Capital said its forecast is based partly on the continued impact of the 100-basis-point interest rate hike introduced in May, which is still affecting the economy.
The firm also noted that changes to reserve requirements coming into effect next Tuesday are expected to absorb excess liquidity in the banking system without requiring a further increase in interest rates.
Inflation rose to 8% in August, exceeding the Central Bank’s 5% target, while the country’s trade deficit widened by more than US$1 billion in July.
However, First Capital also identified rising global oil prices and food price risks arising from the effects of El Niño as factors that could influence the Central Bank’s decision.
