The Meteorological Department says the El Niño event expected this time could surpass all 28 El Niño events recorded since 1950 in terms of its impact.
Speaking at a press briefing today (11), Director General of the Meteorological Department Ajith Wijayamanne said the forecast probability of an El Niño event had increased from 69% to 75%.
Accordingly, the impact of this event could be greater than that of any El Niño event recorded during the past 75 years, he said.
The environmental phenomenon occurring in the Pacific Ocean region, thousands of kilometres away from Sri Lanka, could result in significantly higher-than-normal rainfall across the country during October and November, according to the Meteorological Department.
Although rainfall may decrease somewhat over the next two weeks, rainfall conditions are expected to gradually intensify across the island from the end of September, the department said.
The Director General also revealed that there is a 98% probability that the situation will develop into a ‘strong El Niño’ during the period from October to December.
However, following this period of heavy rainfall, there is a risk of severe water shortages in many parts of the country from January to March next year due to a significant decline in rainfall, he said.
Wijayamanne stressed that El Niño does not directly mean dry weather or drought alone. Rather, it is a phenomenon that can cause major changes to Sri Lanka’s normal monsoonal weather patterns.
He further said that rising global temperatures could result in higher temperatures across Sri Lanka during both daytime and nighttime in the coming period. Even when rainfall occurs, the prevailing heat or temperatures may not decrease significantly, he added.
